Adaptation to climate change in Southern Africa: factoring in AIDS

This paper addresses the interactions between the AIDS epidemic and climate change in southern Africa, particularly as they impact on food security. An assessment was undertaken through a comprehensive literature review. Understanding the underlying causes of regional food insecurity inevitably means understanding the role of the AIDS epidemic and increasingly climate change amongst other stressors. AIDS cuts through household and community level capacity, as well as the capacity of key facilitators of the adaptation process including state extension services and civil society organisations. The main argument of the paper is that adaptation to climate change must explicitly factor in the existing and long-term effects of the epidemic. While calls for embracing adaptation abound, little is being done to assess and strengthen the organisational capacity of institutions, which should play leading roles in any attempt to help prepare for a changing climate. In particular the capacity of key agencies has been undermined by the AIDS epidemic. This reiterates the need for a multisectoral approach and building bridges between agriculture and health sectors to ensure longer term support to livelihoods where HIV and hunger coexist, often overlaid by climate change.     

Conversion or conservation? Understanding wetland change in northwest Costa Rica.

Wetlands are more threatened than any other ecosystem type, with losses exceeding 50% of their original extent worldwide. Despite the small portion of the Earth's surface that they comprise, wetlands contribute significantly to global ecosystem services. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that the location and rate of change in wetland amount in the Tempisque Basin of northwest Costa Rica is predictable from landscape setting. Our results demonstrate that a strong potential exists for developing predictive models of wetland conversion based on an understanding of wetland location and surrounding trends of land use. We found that topography was the single most important predictor of wetland conversion in this area, entraining other conversion processes, and that spatial patterns of wetland loss could consistently be predicted from landscape-level variables. Areas with highest probabilities of conversion were found in the most accessible, non-protected regions of the landscape. While Palo Verde National Park made a substantial contribution to wetland conservation, our results highlight the dependence of lower-lying protected areas on upland processes, adding a little-addressed dimension of complexity to the dialogue about protected area management. Conservation strategies aimed at reducing wetland loss in tropical habitats will benefit from careful analysis of the dominant land use system(s) at a relatively broad scale, and the subsequent development of management and policy responses that take into account dynamic opportunities and constraints in the landscape.     

Laboratory-scale measurement of trace gas fluxes from landfarm soils

Trace gas emissions from refinery and bioremediation landfarms were investigated in a mesocosm-scale simulator facility. Five simulators were constructed and integrated with a data acquisition system and trace gas analyzers, allowing automated real-time sampling and calculation of total hydrocarbon (THC), CO2, and water vapor fluxes. Experiments evaluating the influence of simulated cultivation and rainfall on trace gas fluxes from the soil surfaces were conducted. Results were compared with published field results. Results showed that cultivating dry or moderately wet soil resulted in brief enhancements of THC fluxes, up to a factor of 10, followed by a sharp decline. Cultivating dry soil did not enhance respiration. Cultivating wet soil did result in sustained elevated levels of respiration. Total hydrocarbon emissions were also briefly enhanced in wet soils, but to a lesser magnitude than in dry soil. Hydrocarbon fluxes from refinery landfarm soil were very low for the duration of the experiments. This lead to the conclusion that elevated THC fluxes would only be expected during waste application. An evaluation of the influence of simultaneous water vapor fluxes on other trace gas fluxes highlighted the importance in lab-scale experiments of correcting trace gas fluxes from soils. The results from this research can be used to guide management practices at landfarms and to provide data to aid in assessing the effect of landfarms.     

ASSESSING SATELLITE‐BASED AND AIRCRAFT‐BASED THERMAL INFRARED REMOTE SENSING FOR MONITORING PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIVER TEMPERATURE1

One central issue affecting the health of native fish species in the Pacific Northwest is water temperature. In situ observation methods monitor point temperatures, while thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing captures spatial variations. Satellite‐based TIR sensors have the ability to view large regions in an instant. Four Pacific Northwest river reaches were selected to test the ability of both satellite‐based and moderate resolution aircraft‐based TIR remote sensing products to measure river temperatures. Images with resolutions of 5, 15, and 90 meters were compared with instream temperature observations to assess how along stream radiant temperatures are affected by resolution, reach width, and sensor platform. Where the stream reach can be resolved by the sensor, all sensors obtain water temperatures within ±2°C of instream observations. Along stream temperature variations of up to ±5°C were also observed. Trends were similar between two sets of TIR images taken several hours apart, indicating that the sensors are observing actual temperature patterns from the river surface. If sensor resolution is sufficient to obtain fully resolved water pixels in the river reach, accurate temperatures and spatial patterns can be observed. The current generation of satellite‐based TIR sensors is, however, only able to resolve about 6 percent of all Washington reaches listed as thermally impaired.     

A Risk-Based Predictive Tool to Prevent Accidental Introductions of Nonindigenous Marine Species

Preventing the introduction of nonindigenous species (NIS) is the most efficient way to avoid the costs and impacts of biological invasions. The transport of fouling species on ship hulls is an important vector for the introduction of marine NIS. We use quantitative risk screening techniques to develop a predictive tool of the abundance and variety of organisms being transported by ocean-going yachts. We developed and calibrated an ordinal rank scale of the abundance of fouling assemblages on the hulls of international yacht hulls arriving in New Zealand. Fouling ranks were allocated to 783 international yachts that arrived in New Zealand between 2002 and 2004. Classification tree analysis was used to identify relationships between the fouling ranks and predictor variables that described the maintenance and travel history of the yachts. The fouling ranks provided reliable indications of the actual abundance and variety of fouling assemblages on the yachts and identified most (60%) yachts that had fouling on their hulls. However, classification tree models explained comparatively little of the variation in the distribution of fouling ranks (22.1%), had high misclassification rates (∼43%), and low predictive power. In agreement with other studies, the best model selected the age of the toxic antifouling paint on yacht hulls as the principal risk factor for hull fouling. Our study shows that the transport probability of fouling organisms is the result of a complex suite of interacting factors and that large sample sizes will be needed for calibration of robust risk models.     

Fertility signaling—the proximate mechanism of worker policing in a clonal ant

In eusocial insects, the ability to regulate reproduction relies on cues that signal the presence of fertile individuals. We investigated the variation of cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) with reproductive status in Platythyrea punctata, an ant, in which all workers are capable of producing daughters from unfertilized eggs (thelytoky). Who reproduces is determined through dominance and worker policing. New reproductives, which developed their ovaries after separation from an old reproductive for a short period of time, were attacked by nonreproductives upon reintroduction into their colony. In contrast, aggression against new reproductives with fully developed ovaries, which had been separated over a longer period, was initiated by fights between old and new reproductives. CHC profiles varied with ovarian development. New reproductives were only attacked when they expressed a CHC profile similar to old reproductives, but not when it was similar to that of nonreproductives. CHCs appear to signal the fertility of individuals and induce policing behavior towards surplus reproductive workers.     

Environmental issues for polymer matrix composites and structural adhesives

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has been utilizing polymer matrix composite (PMC) and structural adhesive materials in military equipment for over 20 years. However, the volume of PMCs in fielded systems has remained relatively low. Currently, however, the DoD has established strategic goals that will necessitate the use of lightweight composites in order to meet performance requirements. Therefore, the volume of composites used in DoD systems is expected to see an unprecedented 100-fold increase over the next 30 years. As production volumes increase, the need to address environmental impact increases. The major contributions to environmental degradation from composites are generation of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) and generation of hazardous (HW) and solid wastes. HAPs result primarily during the curing of the composite. HWs arise from expiration of stockpiled resin materials and from soiled support media used during manufacturing and clean up. Due to the wide range of applications and materials systems, as well as manufacturing and repair requirements, a family of environmentally benign solutions is needed to reduce and eliminate environmental impacts from PMC manufacturing. Solutions are proposed involving use of new technologies and materials to reduce pollutants from composite manufacturing. The technologies proposed include alternative curing of thermoset composites using electron beam (E-beam) irradiation and materials substitution employing thermoplastics processed using electromagnetic irradiation.     

Planning for ex situ conservation in the face of uncertainty

Ex situ conservation strategies for threatened species often require long‐term commitment and financial investment to achieve management objectives. We present a framework that considers the decision to adopt ex situ management for a target species as the end point of several linked decisions. We used a decision tree to intuitively represent the logical sequence of decision making. The first decision is to identify the specific management actions most likely to achieve the fundamental objectives of the recovery plan, with or without the use of ex‐situ populations. Once this decision has been made, one decides whether to establish an ex situ population, accounting for the probability of success in the initial phase of the recovery plan, for example, the probability of successful breeding in captivity. Approaching these decisions in the reverse order (attempting to establish an ex situ population before its purpose is clearly defined) can lead to a poor allocation of resources, because it may restrict the range of available decisions in the second stage. We applied our decision framework to the recovery program for the threatened spotted tree frog (Litoria spenceri) of southeastern Australia. Across a range of possible management actions, only those including ex situ management were expected to provide >50% probability of the species’ persistence, but these actions cost more than use of in situ alternatives only. The expected benefits of ex situ actions were predicted to be offset by additional uncertainty and stochasticity associated with establishing and maintaining ex situ populations. Naïvely implementing ex situ conservation strategies can lead to inefficient management. Our framework may help managers explicitly evaluate objectives, management options, and the probability of success prior to establishing a captive colony of any given species.